04 Mar 2026

Operational note: New report from TPR - defined benefit universe projection model report

The defined benefit (DB) pensions landscape is undergoing transformation unlike anything seen in decades. Improved funding positions, legislative changes, and new consolidation options are reshaping the market - and trustees and employers need to respond.

Today The Pensions Regulator (TPR) publishes its first Defined benefit universe projections model report (together with a summary report), setting out projections for the next 10 years of DB schemes.

TPR’s Director of Evidence and External Risk Sarah Tune said: “The step change in DB funding means trustees and employers must actively consider their end-game strategy. Whether that’s running-on, consolidating via a superfund, or buying out, the decisions you make today will shape the future for your members. Stay ahead of the curve - because in this changing landscape, standing still is not an option.

“We’ve produced this new report as part of our intent to be more proactive and forward-looking in publishing regular analysis of the pensions landscape, across both defined benefit and defined contribution schemes”

Contact Information

TPR Press Office
pressoffice@tpr.gov.uk

Notes to editors

The report highlights that over the next decade TPR expects:

Market innovation with greater competition driving more options for trustees and sponsoring employers.
A continuation of the trend for buy-out deals with around half of DB schemes to transfer to the insurance sector.
Surpluses, on a buy-out basis, could exceed £120bn (in real terms), which could be used to improve member benefits and/or unlock investment in economic growth.

TPR has published guidance for trustees and employers of DB and hybrid schemes covering running on the scheme and different financial, governance and insurance options and the issues and considerations when using these solutions.

TPR is the regulator of work-based pension schemes in the UK. Its mission is to protect savers’ money, help to enhance the pensions system, and support innovation in the interests of savers. Its statutory objectives are: to protect members’ benefits; to reduce the risk of calls on the Pension Protection Fund (PPF); to promote, and to improve understanding of, the good administration of work-based pension schemes; to maximise employer compliance with automatic enrolment duties; and to minimise any adverse impact on the sustainable growth of an employer (in relation to the exercise of the regulator’s functions under Part 3 of the Pensions Act 2004 only).

Press contacts

David Morley
Media Officer
pressoffice@tpr.gov.uk
01273 662091

Lucy Mundy

Media Relations Manager
pressoffice@tpr.gov.uk
07345 436 086

Out of hours
This is for journalists only with a media enquiry. The below number will divert to our on-call media officer.
pressoffice@tpr.gov.uk
01273 648496